Israeli Arabs Don't Want to Live Under Palestinian Rule

JERUSALEM – If given the option of living in a future Palestinian state, most Israeli Arabs would prefer to remain citizens of Israel, according to a new survey released this week.

Arabs make up about 20 percent of Israel's population, with a large concentration living in eastern Jerusalem, including in peripheral neighborhoods Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's government has stated could be given to the Palestinians for a future state.

Last month, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni hinted Israeli Arabs living in eastern Jerusalem could remain there and be ruled by a new Palestinian state.

"The future Palestinian state would serve as a national solution for the Palestinians of the West Bank, those living in the refugee camps and those who are citizens with equal rights in the Jewish state," stated Livni at a November press conference with France's foreign minister.

Why Israeli-Arabs Don’t Want to Live in a PA State?

Accounts of a two-week-long arrest under cruel conditions and humiliating tax collection practices are indications of the “quality of life” in the Palestinian Authority.

The Palestinian Centre for Human Rights (PCHR) has issued a condemnation of two recent major human-rights abuses in the Palestinian Authority. One, a relatively minor incident, involved the sudden arrest and interrogation of a writer named Walid Ibrahim al-Hodali, 50, in Ramallah; he was interrogated about his political affiliations for an hour, but his computer was confiscated and not returned.

The second case involved the arrest of journalist Muhannad Salahat, a resident of both Jordan and the Palestinian Authority, on charges that were never explained to him. The representative of the Palestinian Society for Human Rights (RASED) in Jordan, Salahat said afterwards that his interrogators concentrated on a newspaper report he had prepared in 2007 "on the state of lawlessness and chaos in the West Bank and also Gaza following the Hamas takeover." He also said he was abused for criticizing the PA.

The conditions of his detention included, at various times, interrogations until the early morning hours, threats and insults, and not being allowed to wash or go to the bathroom, as well as no contact at all with a lawyer or family members. He was abruptly released after two weeks, only to find that information had been disseminated to the effect that his arrest was not of a political nature, but rather on criminal charges. Three days after his release, his computer was returned to him, with much information deleted, and he was prevented from traveling to Jordan.

PFLP: Hamas is Too Harsh
At the same time, in a separate incident, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), long notorious for its decades of terrorism and murder in its bid to achieve Arab independence in Israel – now complains that the Hamas government is too strict, levies unfairly high taxes, and acts in "baseless and humiliating ways."

Specifically, the PA’s Ma'an news agency reports that the PFLP condemns the Hamas-Gaza government’s harsh collection of unfair taxes. It accuses the Hamas government of seizing the homes and apartments of those living abroad and giving them to Hamas security officers.

The PFLP also said that despite all the hardships caused by the war of last winter – which Hamas often cites as a “humanitarian crisis” caused by Israel - falafel vendors and taxi drivers are being overcharged to keep their businesses running, and a new 60% tax on cigarettes has been imposed.

In addition, civilians are interrogated in "baseless and humiliating ways" regarding their incomes and taxes, and “strange taxes" have been imposed on the scales in vegetable and meat shops.

Majority of Israeli-Arabs Prefer Israel
A December 2007 survey showed that a majority (62%) of Arab citizens of Israel would prefer to remain Israeli citizens rather than become citizens of a future Palestinian state. Similarly, a poll conducted by Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government in June 2008 found that 77% of Israeli-Arabs would rather remain in their native land as Israeli citizens than in any other country in the world.





Israel National News

Israel's Red Lines

Bibi must make clear to our US allies where we stand on key issues

by Ari Harow

For those who closely follow American politics, there was a strong sense of déjà vu as last week's elections results started coming in. Once again a newly elected popular president watched his poll numbers drop as initial euphoria evaporates once the harsh economic realities refuse to disappear and it becomes apparent that all can not be cured with a few speeches.

Here in Israel the immediate question that inevitably crops up once the dust has settled is: "what does this mean for us?" While the long-term answer to this question is heatedly debated, what is clear is that this new political reality offers a unique window of opportunity for Prime Minister Netanyahu to further clarify and crystallize Israel's red lines in negotiation with the Palestinians when he meets with key administration officials in the United States this week.

The professional pundit class seems split in their predictions on how President Obama will react to last weeks "shellacking" of Democrats.

Some think that the president will realize that the American public is disappointed with his performance to date, resulting in a refocusing of his efforts on his domestic agenda and attempting to turn the economy around with the hope of salvaging the remainder of his term, and winning reelection in 2012.

Other experts warn that once it becomes apparent to Obama that there is little he can do within his power to actually lower the stubbornly high unemployment rate, he will turn to overseas adventures where the president has much more authority to act without congressional approval. This path may very well result in a renewed effort by the Administration to reach their stated goal of a comprehensive Israeli-Palestinian agreement within a year. Needless to say, Israel's best interests may not be at the top of the agenda for an Administration that is racing to hold a South Lawn ceremony within 10 months.

As President Obama and his advisors contemplate which of these paths to chose, it is vital that Prime Minister Netanyahu take this opportunity to once again clearly state Israel's red lines in negotiating with the Palestinians. Whether this clarification serves to bolster our friends in Congress, or remind the Administration as they plan any new initiatives, it is crucial that our American allies understand where we stand on these issues as we inch closer to returning to direct negotiations with the Palestinians.

Thankfully, the prime minister does not need to start from scratch. In his historic speech at Bar Ilan University in June of 2009, Netanyahu laid out three key areas where Israel's red lines cannot be crossed.

The Palestinians must agree to recognize Israel as the nation state of the Jewish people. While some Palestinians have belittled this demand as an unnecessary game of semantics, nothing can be further from the truth. We unfortunately are witnesses on a daily basis to the indoctrination of the next generation of Palestinians as children are taught to deny the Jewish people's right to a state in ANY part of the Land of Israel.

This is the message that Palestinian youths are taught in official Palestinian Authority schools, broadcasts and even in children programming. We cannot hope to live in peace with neighbors who do not believe that we have even the most basic right of existence in this land.

Jerusalem cannot be divided
Israel must remain within defensible borders as the result of any peace agreement. We cannot compromise on territorial concessions in the Jordan Valley or on the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria which overlook the center of our country. We have learned the lessons of the Lebanon and Gaza withdrawals and we simply cannot let ourselves repeat these mistakes when the population centers of Jerusalem and Tel Aviv and the strategic Ben Gurion Airport are at stake.

Finally, Jerusalem can never be divided again. Jerusalem – Zion itself – is the raison d'être for our national existence here in Israel and it is the glue that holds the entire Jewish people together. We are already witness to a steady elimination of our sovereignty in the capital. Daily news reports are full of stories of PA officials funding schools and social clubs, ambulances refusing to serve certain neighborhoods due to stone throwing, and Jews fearing to visit the graves of their ancestors on the Mount of Olives where they are subjected to daily violent attacks.

Without a clear stance on this most basic issue we will soon find ourselves chased out of the city we dreamed of for 2,000 years.

As fate (or good planning) would have it, the prime minister finds himself in the US this week meeting with Vice President Biden and Secretary of State Clinton during this pivotal period. Now is the time to explain to these and other Administration officials that just as the US has vital interests that it works tirelessly to safeguard, Israel too must stand strong on our principles or the chance of reaching a just, lasting and true peace will quickly fade and collapse as happened too many times in the past.

The new Congress in Washington, and the policy choices that the Administration will soon make, present an opportunity for the prime minister to reiterate and elaborate on the important points that he made in his Bar Ilan speech. These points are all vital in ensuring that Israel's basic interests are protected.

I hope that the prime minister makes the most of his trip to the US this week and ensures that all of our friends in Washington know that while our yearning for peace is genuine and strong, Israel will not waver on these key fundamental issues.




Ynet News

Arab-Israel Negotiations are a Game

The Blackmailer's Paradox: Arab-Israel Negotiations are a Game

by Prof. Yisrael Aumann

Two men — let us call them Reuben and Simon — are put in a small room containing a suitcase filled with bills totaling $100,000. The owner of the suitcase announces the following:

"I will give you the money in the suitcase under one condition...you have to negotiate an agreement on how to divide it. That is the only way I will agree to give you the money."

Reuben is a rational person and realizes the golden opportunity that has fallen his way. He turns to Simon with the obvious suggestion: "You take half and I'll take half, that way each of us will have $50,000."

To his surprise, Simon frowns at him and says, in a tone that leaves no room for doubt: "Look here, I don't know what your plans are for the money, but I don't intend to leave this room with less than $90,000. If you accept that, fine. If not, we can both go home without any of the money."

Reuben can hardly believe his ears. What has happened to Simon he asks himself. Why should he get 90% of the money and I just 10%? He decides to try to convince Simon to accept his view. "Let's be logical," he urges him, "We are in the same situation, we both want the money. Let's divide the money equally and both of us will profit."

Simon, however, doesn't seem perturbed by his friend's logic He listens attentively, but when Reuben is finished he says, even more emphatically than before: "90-10 or nothing. That is my last offer."

Reuben's face turns red with anger. He is about to punch Simon in the nose, but he steps back. He realizes that Simon is not going to relent, and that the only way he can leave the room with any money is to give in to him. He straightens his clothes, takes $10,000 from the suitcase, shakes Simon's hand and leaves the room humiliated.

This case is called 'The Blackmailer's Paradox" in game theory. The paradox is that Reuben the rational is forced to behave irrationally by definition, in order to achieve maximum results in the face of the situation that has evolved. What brings about this bizarre outcome is the fact Simon is sure of himself and doesn't flinch when making his exorbitant demand. This convinces Reuben that he must give in so as to make the best of the situation.

The Arab-Israeli Conflict:
The relationship between Israel and the Arab countries is conducted along the lines of this paradox. At each stage of negotiation, the Arabs present impossible, unacceptable starting positions. They act sure of themselves and as if they totally believe in what they are asking for, and make it clear to Israel that there is no chance of their backing down.

Invariably, Israel agrees to their blackmailing demands because otherwise she will leave the room empty handed. The most blatant example of this is the negotiations with Syria that have been taking place with different levels of negotiators for years. The Syrians made sure that it was clear from the beginning that they would not compromise on one millimeter of the Golan Heights.

The Israeli side, eager to have a peace agreement with Syria, internalized the Syrian position so well, that the Israeli public is sure that the starting point for future negotiations with Syria has to include complete withdrawal from the Golan Heights, this despite its critical strategic importance in ensuring secure borders for Israel.

The Losing Solution:
According to game theory, Israel has to change certain basic perceptions in order to improve her chances in the negotiations game with the Arabs and win the long term political struggle:

a. Willingness to forego agreements:
Israel's political stand is based on the principle that agreements must be reached with the Arabs at any price, that the lack of agreements is untenable. In the Blackmailer's Paradox, Reuben's behavior is the result of his feeling that he must leave the room with some money, no matter how little. Because Reuben cannot imagine himself leaving the room with empty hands, he is easy prey for Simon, and ends up leaving with a certain amount of money, but in the role of the humiliated loser. This is similar to the way Israel handles negotiations, her mental state making her unable to reject suggestions that do not advance her interests.

b. Taking repetition into account
Game theory relates to onetime situations differently than to situations that repeat themselves. A situation that repeats itself over any length of time, creates, paradoxically, strategic parity that leads to cooperation between the opposing sides. This cooperation occurs when both sides realize that the game is going to repeat itself, and that since they must weigh the influence present moves will have on future games, there is a balancing factor at play. Reuben saw his problem as a onetime event, and behaved accordingly. Had he told Simon instead that he would not forego the amount he deserves even if he sustains a total loss, he would have changed the game results for an indefinite period. It is probably true that he would still have left the game empty handed, but at the next meeting with Simon, the latter would remember Reuben's original suggestion and would try to reach a compromise.
That is how Israel has to behave, looking at the long term in order to improve her position in future negotiations, even if it means continuing a state of war and fore going an agreement.

c. Faith in your opinions
Another element that creates the "Blackmailer's Paradox" is the unwavering belief of one side in its opinion. Simon exemplifies that. This faith gives a contender inner confidence in his cause at the start and eventually convinces his rival as well. The result is that the opposing side wants to reach an agreement, even at the expense of irrational surrender that is considerably distanced from his opening position. Several years ago, I spoke to a senior officer who claimed that Israel must withdraw from the Golan Heights in the framework of a peace treaty, because the Golan is holy land to the Syrians and they will never give it up. I explained to him that first the Syrians convinced themselves that the Golan is holy land to them, and then proceeded to convince you as well. The Syrians' unflinching belief that they are in the right convinces us to give in to their dictates. The only solution to that is for us to believe unwaveringly in the righteousness of our cause. Only complete faith in our demands can succeed in convincing our Syrian opponent to take our opinion into account.

As in all of science, game theory does not take sides in moral and value judgments. It analyzes strategically the behavior of opposing sides in a game they play against one another. The State of Israel is in the midst of one such game opposite its enemies. As in every game, the Arab-Israeli game involves interests that create the framework of the game and its rules.

Sadly, Israel ignores the basic principles of game theory. If Israel would be wise enough to behave according to those principles, her political status and de facto, her security status, would improve substantially. ? 

Eiditor's Note: Some of the readers' comments point out other considerations.
1. Dr.Auman's Analysis ?I respectfully disagree with at least part of Dr. Auman's analysis because of a simple reason. In his model, both Reuben and Simon want to walk away with money; Simon is merely trying to maximize his return by playing on the insecurities of Reuben (through the blackmail). So the theory is if Simon presses his position strong enough, he'll walk away with more. But our Arab cousins are not interested in any solution that doesn't totally destroy Reuben even if it leaves him with nothing! (c.f. suicide bombing) ?em, brooklyn (07/06/10)

2. Prof. Aumann left out one big important factor! ?As Arafat himself pointed out after the Clinton administration attempt at "Lets Help Israel and the Pals Negotiate:" The most strategic game the Pals are playing is the game they play with with their own people. Arafat told Clinton: " If I go back with what you offered, my own people will lynch me and find a new leader! " ?hiddenheard, (07/06/10)

3. A different game is played ?1. The $100,000 money that is offered for negotiations was originally robbed from Reuben and rightfully belongs to him. ?2. Simon is paid billions on the side to encourage him to negotiate. If he ends the game he will lose those billions. So it's in his interest to continue the game indefinitely. ?3. It is not the case that the $100k is in the suitcase. It is actually in Reuben's bank account. The game consists of convincing Reuben to make a "unilateral (cash) withdrawal " and hand the money to over to Simon, who will use the money to finance his robbery operations against Reuben. ?Eliezer, Brooklyn (07/06/10)

4. Blackmail ?The present situation only continues because of the prevalence of Jew-hatred in the world. Egypt and Jordan have accepted massive aide packages for peace. So they fight a war by proxy using the "palestinians ". It works beautifully, by remaining "stateless " these people do not have to abide by any laws, and there are enough splinter factions that if one is appeased another can make new demands. We go along with the charade hoping that someday things will improve. When will anyone ever point out that the emperor is naked? Israel WON a defensive war against Egypt and Jordan. "displaced " citizens of those countries should be under their control. Arabs that choose to leave Israel fall into that category, as well as any who can not pledge an oath of loyalty. It should be up to Egypt and Jordan to control them, and or give them a state. Pure and simple. ?bb, Karmiel (07/06/10)

5. Tactical Changes ?Logic and reason are not of any value in this type of negotiation. Morality and common sense mean nothing either. The best example of a well-prepared player in this game is a professional gambler. Frankly, the stakes are too high to allow anyone else. Probably a poker genius with years of experience in high-risk games would react best under intolerable pressure, and could pull off more than one victory with ease. Faith is also a critical factor, so a person whose beliefs are rock-solid is essential. Perhaps Mr. Netanyahu could employ an adviser with those traits, e.g., an orthodox Rabbi who makes a living at the casinos in Nevada.... shrewd, supremely confident, lucky and with a friend in the highest of all places. ?Dorian, Sparks (07/06/10)

 
Yisrael Aumann is a professor at the Center for the Study of Rationality in the Hebrew University of Jerusalem in Israel. He also holds a visiting position at Stony Brook University and is one of the founding members of the Center for Game Theory in Economics at Stony Brook. Aumann received a Nobel award in Economics in 2005 for his work on conflict and cooperation through game-theory analysis.




Israel national news

This Peace is Killing Us

One must be stupid, senile to think deal with PA will bring something other than blood, tears
By: Hagai Segal

The peace process and funeral processions always went hand in hand around here.

A day before the signing of the Oslo Accords, while then-Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin was already on his way to the ceremony in Washington, three IDF soldiers were murdered in a Gaza attack. Yet that was merely the prelude for the huge wave of terror attacks we experienced later on.

At first, we referred to the casualties around here as “peace victims,” yet when the wave of funerals intensified, everyone shunned this Orwellian term and shifted to using more sophisticated eulogies.

Wednesday night, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu condemned the terrible terror attack in the Mount Hebron area, which left four Israelis dead, by declaring that “the murder proves that we must be more insistent on our security demands.” Really? Is that what the murder proves?

After all, the Oslo Accords were a masterpiece of Israeli security demands presented to the Arabs and to the Americans. On paper, everything was perfect: Strict security arrangements at border crossings, a thorough procedure outlining pursuit tactics following terror attacks, a complete ban on the importation of heavy weapons, meticulous registration of handguns at every Palestinian police station, and so on and so forth.

Yet what did we end up getting at the end of the day? Blood and tears; only blood and tears.

Those who think that things will be different after the next agreement is signed are either stupid or senile. All the security geniuses here in Israel and abroad will not be able to produce a formula that would guarantee tranquility in the event of handing over land to the control of Mahmoud Abbas’ militias.

Such agreement will be signed in an exciting ceremony in America, but end up with Israeli cars dotted with bullet holes here.

Car after being sprayed with bullets near Hebron this week:


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